Tuesday, November 02, 2004

At First Light...

Will update till there's a winner.

(2:10PM):Via Wonkette:


AZ 45-55
CO 48-51
LA 42-57
MI 51-48
WI 52-48
PA 60-40
OH 52-48
FL 51-48
MICH 51-47
NM 50-48
MINN 58-40
WISC 52-43
IOWA 49-49
NH 57-41

I will update as I see more numbers come in...unofficial or official.

(2:26PM): Wonkette adds a disclaimer:

"I have been asked to clarify: The little birdie is not Joe Trippi nor anyone he works with.

In fact, the little birdie is really skittish and not exactly trustworthy in all cases. Please vote, even if you live in PA. These could be total forgeries, designed to keep you from voting. As a friend put it, "The Yankees always figure out a way to win.""

(2:45PM): Numbers track back to www.mydd.com...They claim to be, in fact, the exit poll results so far, but we'll never know if they're actually officially real.

(3:10PM): Just read this on John Zogby's website:

John Zogby: "Watch Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. There may be some big surprises!" 11:43 AM - 11-02-04

He will have his final poll numbers today at 5:30...one half hour before the first poll closes.

I don't know where I got these numbers. I have faith in them, however. More faith than the other numbers.

Kerry up 4 in OH
up one in FL
up 16 in NH
up 18 in PA
up 17 in MN
up 1.8 in NM
up 0.1 in IA
up 4.7 in WI

And from the bible, electoral-vote.com, here are Zogby's final Aproval/Disaproval ratings in some select swing states...

Colorado 46%/54%
Florida 46%/53%
Iowa 45%/55%
Minnesota 43%/56%
New Mexico 47%/53%
Nevada 49%/51%
Ohio 43%/49%
Pennsylvania 45%/55%
Wisconsin 45%/55%

More from Wonkette:


USA: 50-49
FL: 50-49
OH: 50-49
Colorado: 48-50
NM: 50-48 (these numbers could change)

Note: No data for PA, WI, IA, MI, etc. etc. etc.

My father tells me Slate is planing on publishing exit polls at 5:00PM. No more updates till then...unless something BIG comes in.

(4:14PM): Slate posted their numbers. Still looking good, but much closer.


Florida 50/49
Ohio 50/49
Wisconsin 51/46
Michigan 51/47
Nevada 48/50
New Mexico 50/48
North Carolina 49/51
Colorado 46/53

Apparently from CNN, via Kos:

Ohio - African American precincts are performing at 106% what we expected, based on historical numbers. Hispanic precincts are at 144% what we expected. Precincts that went for Gore are turning out 8% higher then those that went Bush in 2000. Democratic base precincts are performing 15% higher than GOP base precincts.

Florida - Dem base precincts are performing 14% better than Bush base precincts. In precincts that went for Gore, they are doing 6% better than those that went for Bush. African American precincts at 109%, Hispanic precincts at 106%.

Pennsylvania - African American precincts at 102% of expectations, Hispanics at 136% of expectations. The Gore precincts are doing 4 percent better than bush precincts.

Michigan - Democratic base precincts are 8% better than GOP base states. Gore precincts are 5% better than Bush.

Zogby knew songthing was up with Virginia...

Via Wonkette, once again...

Virginia? Fucking Virginia? Am I taking crazy pills?

Kerry = + numbers
FL +4
OH +5
MI +4
PA +16
IA +2
WI +5
MN +15
NV Bush up 1
NM tied at 49
CO Bush up 1
VA Bush up 1
NC Bush up 5


AR: 45/54 - BUSH
ME: 55/44 - KERRY

and via Kevin Drum's Washington Monthly Blog

Hispanic FL vote in 2000: 35% for Gore, 65% for Bush
Hispanic FL vote in 2004: 46% for Kerry, 53% for Bush


This is the best news I've heard all day... (via Wonkette)

And finally...Pollmaster Zogby sez (via Atrios):
"311-213, with Nevada and Colorado too close to call...."

OK! Looking Good! That's it for my running pre-return speculation special. I'm gonna get some work done here then head home for the actual results. I'll continue this in a new post then. As for all y’all looking for Bravery MP3's and Arcade Fire Tickets and whatnot, I'll be back with the irreverence tomorrow fer sure...


At 4:34 PM, Blogger holmes said...

did you see this shit?


i hate politics.


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